fold-equity

Fold equity (FE) is the +EV you gain by getting the opponent to fold. It is the core source of value behind bluffs, semi-bluffs, and short-stack shoves.

Detailed Explanation

Every bet's EV breaks into two pieces:

EV(bet) = showdown EV + fold equity

• Showdown EV: the expected pot when the opponent calls and the hand goes to showdown
• Fold equity: opponent's fold probability × current pot

Short-Stack Shove Example

A 12bb short stack on the BTN shoves A5s. Showdown EV against the blinds' ~10% call range is poor (A5s vs JJ+/AK has under 30% equity). But the blinds fold ~70% → fold equity is very high.

EV(shove) = 0.7 × (+1.5bb in blinds) + 0.3 × (showdown loss) ≈ +0.5bb

Without fold equity (e.g. opponent has already shoved), most short-stack shoves are -EV.

Bluff Fold-Equity Threshold

Minimum fold equity for a bluff = bet / (bet + pot)

Example: pot 100, bluff bet 100 → required FE = 50%. The opponent must fold at least 50% for the bluff to break even.

Factors That Affect Fold Equity

1. Bet size: larger sizes generally produce higher FE, but at higher cost
2. Opponent type: tight-passive → high FE; loose-aggressive → low FE
3. Story consistency: do your earlier-street actions support the strength signal you're sending now?
4. Position: IP typically has slightly higher FE than OOP
5. Multi-street vs single-street: cumulative FE across multi-street barrels exceeds single-street

Common Use Cases

• Short-stack push/fold decisions: fold equity is the main +EV of shoves
• Bluff selection: estimate whether FE meets the break-even threshold
• Semi-bluff evaluation: FE + post-hit equity, double value
• Exploiting opponents: identify "high fold to cbet" players and increase cbet bluffs