semi-bluff

A semi-bluff is a bet with a hand that isn't currently the best but has equity to back it up. The classic example is cbetting with a flush draw + gutshot on the flop.

Detailed Explanation

Two reasons a semi-bluff outperforms a pure bluff:

1. Double value: fold equity (opponent folds, pot to you) + hit value (opponent calls, turn or river makes the nuts and counter-attacks)
2. Safer barrel story: when called, hitting on the turn lets you keep value betting; missing still gives reasonable barrel options

Semi-bluff EV formula:

EV(semi-bluff) = (fold rate × pot) + (call rate × (hit probability × expected turn-river winnings - miss probability × bet lost))

Ideal semi-bluff candidates (flop):

• Strong semi-bluffs: flush draw + gutshot (15 outs, ~54% to hit on turn or river when called)
• Top flush draws: nut flush draw (9 outs, ~36%, plus blocker value)
• Top pair + backdoor: top pair medium kicker + backdoor flush, extending into a turn barrel

Bad semi-bluff candidates:

• Bottom pair + backdoor draw: realizes too little equity when called
• Pure 8-out straight draw IP on a dry board: weak fold equity + middling equity — check-call is usually better

Common Use Cases

• OOP check-raise: flush draw + gutshot is the classic check-raise semi-bluff candidate
• IP cbet semi-bluff: backdoor + gutshot cbets on dry boards, paired with nut blockers
• 3bet pot cbet shove: low-cost semi-bluff when SPR is low