chipEV

chipEV is the expected change in chip stack caused by a decision — pure chip EV without prize-value adjustments.

Detailed Explanation

chipEV calculation:

chipEV = Σ (probability of each outcome × chip change of each outcome)

Example: you go all-in for 100 chips with 60% equity.

chipEV = 0.6 × (+100) + 0.4 × (-100) = +20 chips

In cash games, chipEV always equals $EV — every chip is worth a fixed amount ($1 = 1 chip). So cash decisions only need chipEV.

But in tournaments, chipEV ≠ $EV:

• Tournament chip value is non-linear (ICM concept)
• Gaining 100 more chips might add only $5 of expected prize money (if you're already a big stack)
• Losing 100 chips might cost $30 of expected prize money (if you're a medium stack on the bubble)

When you can use chipEV in tournaments:

• Early: pay jumps are far away, ICM impact is small
• Heads-up: top two payouts are locked, only the gap between 1st and 2nd remains (close to linear)
• Extremely short stack: close to bust, marginal chip value is low, approximating chipEV

When ICM correction is mandatory:

• Bubble: maximum ICM pressure
• Dense pay jumps: every place change is an ICM decision
• Big stack vs medium stack: ICM asymmetry opens exploitation

Common Use Cases

• Cash games: chipEV is the sole decision criterion
• Early tournaments: chipEV can dominate, but be aware it gradually diverges
• Mid-to-late tournaments: ICM correction is mandatory
• Reading push/fold charts: early charts lean chipEV; late charts use ICM-adjusted versions