bubble
TournamentAliases: bubble, 泡沫期, 奖金圈泡沫
The bubble is the tournament phase with exactly the paid-places count + 1 players left. ICM pressure peaks, and decision ranges for short and medium stacks compress dramatically.
The bubble is the phase where remaining players = paid places + 1. Every elimination at this stage means someone busts for $0 (the "bubble boy"), and reaching the money — even at the smallest payout — is far better than zero.
Detailed Explanation
The bubble is the most extreme phase of ICM pressure:
- Marginal value of cashing explodes: surviving one more player = locking in at least the minimum payout; busting = all prior chips invested go to zero
- Defensive chip value far exceeds aggressive chip value: the same hand has very different $EV vs chipEV evaluations on the bubble
- Player behavior systematically tightens: ranges at almost every position narrow
Typical bubble decisions:
- Short stack (< 12bb): shove range can actually be slightly wider — close to bust already, with limited value to lose
- Medium stack (15-30bb): most squeezed by ICM; most marginal decisions lean toward fold
- Big stack (40bb+): can shove wide vs medium stacks, exploiting ICM asymmetry
For reference: on the bubble, calling QQ vs another medium stack's all-in can be $EV negative (while chipEV positive); AK still calls a short-stack shove but might fold to a medium-stack shove.
Common Use Cases
- Big stack attacking medium stacks: under ICM pressure the medium's calling threshold is high, so all-in shove bluffs are highly efficient
- Medium-stack defense: avoid flips against another medium stack (worst matchup); play conservative until the bubble bursts
- Short-stack survival mode: shove/fold focused, avoid flat + give-up chip leakage
- Deal-making window: deal negotiations happen most often near the bubble